Бидний тухай
Багш ажилтан
The global SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic began in December 2019 and has had a deep impact across the world. Millions of people have died, healthcare facilities have been overwhelmed, work- places and schools have been closed for long periods. Epidemiological models have been used prospectively to inform intervention policies and public health planning, and can be used retrospectively to better under- stand the key drivers of the epidemic, and assess the impact of different interventions. Here we present an analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ulaan- baatar, Mongolia over the period between January and November 2021. Our analysis is based on an SEIR- type epidemic model that incor- porates age-dependence in contact rates, infection severity and vaccine coverage. Our model was configured to be robust and interpretable, and is specifically tailored to Mongolia’s demographics. In this report we examine incidence and mortality data, detail the mechanistic math- ematical model, estimate parameters for that model based on incidence and mortality data, examine the roles of different age- groups over the course of the epidemic, and asses the impact of vaccination and school closures on the epidemic trajectory.
