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Abstract: With the increasing availability of various types of data, anomaly detection in massive datasets has seen growing focus in many fields. Anomaly detection is one of the techniques used to identify unusual patterns or outliers. There are various methods and algorithms used for anomaly detection, including statistical and machine learning methods. Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is a meteorological phenomenon that refers to a rapid increase in temperatures in the stratosphere, usually occurring in the middle to late winter. One of the notable impacts of SSW is the occurrence of anomalous cold air outbreaks and enhanced precipitation in northern Eurasia and South Asia. Accurately predicting SSWs could help improve weather forecasting and provide more advanced warnings for extreme weather events (dzud etc). This study focuses on developing algorithm that to detect SSW events by using high dimensional satellite data. We applied deep learning and statistical mixed algorithms for modeling and detecting anomalies. The results show that the proposed method has high accuracy for both prediction and anomaly detection. Keywords: anomaly detection, neural networks, sudden stratospheric warming
Abstract This study investigates of the grassland changes in Mongolian steppe area. Panel data analysis are proposed for estimating the relationship between grassland and biophysical parameters such as Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Elevation, and Slope. The study area is Dornod province which is one of the largest steppes in Mongolia. The data from randomly selected ten locations over this area during the growing season (April to September) from 2003 to 2018. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is used to characterize the grassland changes over the study area. The data were obtained from the various satellite. Multiple linear regression, fixed effects panel regression and random effects panel regression were applied to derive an empirical relationship between the grassland and the biophysical parameters. Statistical significance tests show that random effects model’s coefficients represent the relationships better. According to the results, NDWI has a strong positive dependence on NDVI, whereas the LST has a weak and negative effects. Though the Slope had little effect and the Elevation showed a weak positive relationship. The output compared with satellite data for 20% and agreement was 83% at 5% significance level. The results suggest that the proposed model is suitable for monitoring grassland change, and to examine the factors that contribute to the grassland variations. Keywords: Grassland dynamics; Mongolian steppe, Time-series and Cross-section data; Panel data analysis, Fixed and Random effects model
Purpose – By examining the impact of product innovation on abnormal financial returns following the launch of new products, this study aims to test the explanatory power of a new compound measure of product innovativeness (Ganbaatar and Douglas, 2019). Design/methodology/approach – It is a longitudinal study in which the authors used the compound product innovativeness score (CPIS) for the first time to measure product innovativeness. The abnormal financial returns are estimated through the event study design, where four different models are used. Artificial neural network analysis is done to determine the impact of the CPIS on abnormal returns by utilising a hexic polynomial regression model. Findings – The authors find effect sizes that substantially exceed practically significant levels and that the CPIS explain 65% of the variance in the firm’s abnormal returns in market valuation. Moreover, new-to-the- market novelty predicts 83% of the variation, while new-to-the-firm (catch-up) innovation insignificantly impacts firm value. Research limitations/implications – This paper demonstrates how the CPIS, an objective and direct measure of product innovativeness, can be used to gain more insight into the innovation effect. Practical implications – Implications for the business practice of this study include the necessity of relentless innovation by firms in contested differentiated markets, particularly where technological advance is ongoing. Larger and mature firms must practice corporate entrepreneurship to renew their products on a continuous basis to avoid slipping backwards in their markets. Innovation leadership, rather than following the leader, is also important to increase competitive advantage, given the result that innovation followship does not produce abnormal financial returns. Originality/value – In this study, the authors focused on the effect of product innovativeness on firm performance. While the literature affirms a positive relationship between innovation and firm performance, the effect size of this relationship varies, due largely to the authors contend to simplistic measures of innovativeness. In this study, the authors adopt the relatively novel “compound” measure of product innovativeness (Ganbaatar and Douglas, 2019) to better encapsulate the nuances of both technical novelty and market novelty. This measure of product innovativeness is applicable to firms of all sizes but is more easily applied to entrepreneurial new ventures and SMEs, and it avoids the shortcomings of prior firm-level and subjective measures of innovativeness for both smaller and larger firms. Using a more effective analytical method (Artificial Neural Network), the authors investigated whether there is a “practically” significant effect size due to product innovation, which could be valuable for entrepreneurs in practice. The authors show that the CPIS measure can very effectively explain abnormalities in the stock market, exhibiting a moderate effect size and explaining 65% of the variation in abnormal returns. Keywords Productinnovativeness,Firmperformance,Technicalnovelty,Marketnovelty, Compound product innovativeness score, Artificial neural network analysis
Riverbank erosion is an important topic in environmental research. Although several methods have been used to prevent erosion and balance ecosystems, both are still very challenging issues. We propose three different adaptation approaches to control riverbank erosion in the steppe area. The area has been affected by dramatic erosion over the past several years due to water flow and other external effects. The approaches were based on bioengineering and mechanical methods that were different in terms of the erosion rate and slope of the riverbank, the velocity and intensity of water flow, and the mechanical properties of the soil and plant species. Cost benefit analysis (CBA) and sensitivity analysis were applied to estimate and compare the approaches. The most appropriate approaches were selected by comparing the net present value (NPV), the benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and the internal rate of return (IRR), which are the main indicators of CBA. The CBA results indicated that all the approaches had positive benefits in 2020-2030. The most economically and environmentally beneficial approach was Approach-3 (bioengineering method). A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the NPV of Approach-3 was positive in both scenarios of the pessimistic and optimistic cases of the discount rate. Monte Carlo analysis with 500 simulations was performed to obtain the future NPV. The results reveal that bioengineering methods for riverbank erosion control have higher environmental benefits and are more suitable in steppe areas.
This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of Mongolian steppe and proposes a model for analyzing the relationship between grassland and biophysical parameters such as Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Elevation, and Slope. The Dornod province, which is one of the largest steppes in Mongolia, is selected as the study area, and data from 10 selected locations over this area during the growing season (April to September) from 2003 to 2018 are analyzed. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is used to characterize the grassland variations over the selected locations. NDVI and LST are obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data products. NDWI is estimated from MODIS spectral reflectance measurements. The Slope and Elevation are obtained from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model. A panel regression analysis method is applied to derive an empirical relationship between the grassland and the biophysical parameters. Statistical significance tests show that random effects model coefficients represent the relationships better. According to the results, NDWI has a strong positive dependence on NDVI, whereas the LST has a weak and inverse effect. Though the Slope had little effect, the Elevation showed a weak positive dependence. A validation of the model estimated NDVI with observations yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.83 at 5% significance level. The results suggest that the proposed model is suitable for for monitoring Mongolian steppe, and to examine the factors that contribute to the grassland variations.
We study an optimal control problem which is formulated to the classical growth theory. We assume that per capita capital is an increasing function and the saving rate is no longer constant and depends on time, then the average per capita consumption maximization problem reduces to an optimal control problem. The obtained problem has constraints imposed on trajectory as well as control. Hence, we apply the maximum principle for the problems with mixed inequality constraint to solve the problem. Some numerical results are included. We also show that the Solow growth model is a particular case of the proposed model.
The spatial distribution of permafrost and associated mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are crucial data for hydrological studies. In this paper, we present the current state of knowledge on the spatial distribution of the permafrost properties of 29 river basins in Mongolia. The MAGT and ALT values are estimated by applying TTOP and Kudryavtsev methods. The main input of both methods is the spatially distributed surface temperature. We used the 8-day land surface temperature (LST) data from the day- and night-time Aqua and Terra images of the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). The gaps of the MODIS LST data were filled by spatial interpolation. Next, an LST model was developed based on 34 observational borehole data using a panel regression analysis (Baltagi, Econometric analysis of panel data, 3 edn, Wiley, New York, 2005). The model was applied for the whole country and covered the period from August 2012 to August 2013. The results show that the permafrost covers 26.3% of the country. The average MAGT and ALT for the permafrost region is − 1.6 °C and 3.1 m, respectively. The MAGT above -2 °C (warm permafrost) covers approximately 67% of the total permafrost area. The permafrost area and distribution in cold and warm permafrost varies highly over the country, in particular in regions where the river network is highly developed. High surface temperatures associated with climate change would result in changes of permafrost conditions, and, thus, would impact the surface water availability in these regions. The data on permafrost conditions presented in this paper can be used for further research on changes in the hydrological conditions of Mongolia.
MODIS-ийн Aqua/Terra хиймэл дагуулын газрын гадаргын температурын мэдээг статистик аргаар нөхөх нь М. Хулан1 З.Мөнхцэцэг1 Ц. Жаргалтулга2 1Монгол Улсын Их Сургууль, Хэрэглээний Шинжлэх Ухаан, Инженерчлэлийн сургууль 2 Инжгеотех ХХК Хиймэл дагуулын газрын гадаргын температурын мэдээг өгөгдөлийг ус, цаг уур, экологи, цэвдэг зэрэг шинжлэх ухааны олон салбарт өргөнөөр ашиглах болсон. Ялангуяа газрын гадаргын янз бүрийн хугацааны температурын мэдээг цэвдэгт хөрсний судалгаанд ашиглах нь цэвдэгийн тархалтын зураглал, дулаан чийгийн горим, хөлдөлт/гэсэлтийн гүнийг тодорхойлоход ажиглалтын мэдээ өгөгдөл багатай нөхцөлд судалгааг өргөжүүлэх боломжийг олгож байна. Гэвч үүл болон аэрозолын хэсгүүдээс хамаарч зарим тохиолдолд газрын гадаргын температурын зурагт мэдээ өгөгдөлгүй хэсгүүд үүсдэг. Тиймээс бид энэхүү судалгаанд MODIS-ийн Aqua/Terra хиймэл дагуулын 2012-2013 оны өдөр/шөнийн 8 хоногийн дундаж газрын гадаргын температурын мэдээг ашиглаж панел регрессийн аргаар мэдээ өгөгдөлгүй хэсгийг нөхөх аргыг судалсан болно. Загварыг боловсруулахдаа нийт 34 цэгийн ажиглалтын мэдээг ашигласан болно. Панел регрессийн аргаар өгөгдлүүдийн хугацаан цувааг байршил болон хугацаанаас хамааруулан хэд хэд хувилбараар боловсруулсны эцэст улирлаар үүсгэсэн панел загвар хамгийн сайн үр дүнг үзүүлсэн (overall R2=0.92 , between R2=0.92, within R2 =0.8, rho=0.38) Цаашид панел загвараар хиймэл дагуулын мэдээ өгөгдлийг боловсруулах бүрэн боломжтой байна. Түлхүүр үг: хиймэл дагуулын мэдээ, панел дата
A study of the value of Mongolian forest resource in the shadow market KHULAN MYAGMAR1†, BAYANJARGAL DARKHIJAV2, ARIUNAA SHARANKHUU3 1,2,3Department of Applied Mathematics, National University of Mongolia, Baga toiruu Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Email: khulan.m@seas.num.edu.mn ABSTRACT An approximately 8 percent of Mongolia's territory is covered by forests and which is largely distributed in the northern part of the country. The Mongolian forest resource is including forest resourse and non timber forest products which are berries, nuts, mushrooms, traditional medicinal herbs, herbs for food, raw materials, fuel wood, forage and game animals. The total forest resource is 124.35 million cubic meter, as well as 1.2 million cubic meter timber product is logged legally per year due to the statistics in the year 2017. In last two decays, the main policy of the forest sector has been largely controlled usage of forest resource, not based on demand of the wood and wooden products consumption. The impact of the policy has been improving the value of shadow market. The mongolian shadow market value is estimated 13 percent which is normal value. But If we look at the sector’s role of the whole economy, the value of the forest sector is seems to be high valued sector in the shadow market. There are 3 general methodoly which are direct, indirect and modeling methodology are used to estimate the value of shadow market in the research. In this paper, we used modeliing methodology to estimate that a pollution of timber production, and the value of illegal timber production. As a result, there is a pollution of timber production is estimated 5.8 times higher than the quantity of the timber production. Besides, the value of illegal timber production is estimated about 3 hundred million tugrugs between 2012 and 2016. According to the result of the study, we recommend that it is possible to increase an economic value of the forest sector to manage the policy. Keywords: Illegal timber production, shadow market, neo classic growth model
STUDY ON MONGOLIAN FOREST STAND DYNAMICS USING MATHEMATICAL MODELING KHULAN MYAGMAR1†, LIU JUNCHANG2 1Department of Applied Mathematics, National University of Mongolia, Baga toiruu Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Email: khulan.m@seas.num.edu.mn 2Beijing Forestry University, Haidian distrcit Beijing, China Email: liujc@bjfu.edu.cn ABSTRACT A Global warming, climate change and negative human activities are expected to directly and negatively influence Mongolia’s forest resource area and quality in recent years. There are the important causes of deforestation and forest degradation are fire, improper commercial logging, illegal collection of wood for construction and fuel, overgrazing, mining activity, and damage by pests and diseases. Mongolian forest resource is not only decreasing in quantity of the forest, also forest structure and quality has been changing rapidly in the last decay. For instance, age structure has been changing from young aged forest into maturity forest classification in recent years. This paper is considered the main factors such as Climate factors and Socio-Economic factors in the analysis of forest stand dynamics of Mongolia. In this study, we estimated coefficients of relationship between forest resource and the main causes of deforestation and degradation. Moreover, Markov chain process has been used to predict future dynamic of forest stand by age class structure based on transition matrix. The result of this paper shows that the how most important factors influence the future forest stand changes are forest fire and timber harvesting in a Mongolia. The result shows that forest fire will decrease (9%) by climate change, logging activity will increase (25%) by increasing wood demand. Also, total forest resource will go down about 13% in future 15 years. The result of Markov process shows that the amount of degradation is not evenly distributed between young aged forest and maturing forest. Keywords: Climate change, Forest stand dynamic, Forest age class structure, Transition matrix
The Ulaan ereg is a branch of Ulz river which is located in the Pacific Ocean consists of taiga, forest steppe and steppe landscapes. The river basin is a suitable habitat for some animal species originated in Siberia, Mongolia and Manchurian and the endangered birds not only in Mongolia, but also in the world. Therefore, it is very important to protect the buffer zone along the Ulz River basin in order to save the endangered 4 species of the crane, 1 species of the goose and 1 species of the bustard. In this study we carried out cost-benefit analysis on the most suitable two scenarios that to create and protect the buffer zone which is located along with Ulz river. As results of the analysis indicate the most economically and environmentally beneficial one is Scenario1. Finally, risk assessment is made for NPV of Scenario-1.
The Ulaan ereg is a branch of the Ulz river which is located in the Pacific Ocean consists of taiga, forest steppe and steppe landscapes. The river basin is a suitable habitat area for some animal species originated in Siberia, Mongolia and Manchurian and the endangered birds not only in Mongolia, but also in the world. Therefore, it is very important to protect the buffer zone along Ulz River basin in order to save the endangered 4 species of the crane, 1 species of the goose and 1 species of the bustard. In this study we carried out cost-benefit analysis on the most suitable two scenarios that to create and protect the buffer zone which is located along with Ulz river. As results of the analysis indicate the most economically and environmentally beneficial one is Scenario1. Finally, risk assessment is made for NPV of Scenario-1.
A Cost Benefit Analysis for the protection of buffer zone in the Ulz river basin of Mongolia KHULAN Myagmar1, *, DUGARJAV CHULTEM2, ENKHBILEG DULAMTSEREN3, BAYANJARGAL DARHKIJAV4 1,4 School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, National University of Mongolia 2, 3 Biology institute, Academy of Sciences, Mongolia * Corresponding author: bayanjargal@seas.num.edu.m Abstract The Onon, Ulz and Khalkh river basin which is located in Pacific Ocean consists of taiga, forest steppe and steppe landscapes. The river basin is a suitable habitat for some animal species originated in Siberia, Mongolia and Manchurian and the endangered birds not only in Mongolia, but also in the world. Therefore, it is very important to protect the buffer zone along Ulz River basin in order to save the endangered 4 species of the crane (Grus grus, G.leucogeranus, G.vipio and G.monacha), 1 species of the goose (Anser cygnoides) and 1 species of the bustard (Otis tarda). By establishing such a protection zone, it is possible to create a favorable environment for these 6 species of birds to come in the spring and furthermore to stay regularly in the summer and increase their numbers. So, it is a potential area of positive outcomes, including the development of research and tourism, as well as, the protection of soil and plants by releasing certain areas from livestock. In this study we carried out cost-benefit analysis on the most suitable two scenarios that to create and protect the buffer zone to save the endangered birds, which is located along with Ulz river. The cost benefit analysis estimates all costs and benefits in monetary terms and it allows to compare relatively the costs and benefits of a given activities or sectors to be ranked. The analysis estimates three values including the net present value (NPV), the benefit cost ratio (BCR) and the internal rate of return (IRR) which are used for decision makers to compare the activities. The main challenge to estimate cost-benefit analysis is to carry out environmental cost and benefit for the analysis in the long term. Therefore, we attempt to estimate environmental cost and benefit for the two scenarios in the buffer zone based on direct impact in the protection activity. Scenario-1 is included following 6 main activities. 1. In order to create buffer zone, to relocate herder households from targeted area to other place. 2. To create a new river channel with 14 km area to split river flow to north part from the main channel along with Ulz river north inundation for water usage of herder households. 3. In order to protect from livestock, construct the “buriad” type fence around the targeted area. 4.In addition, to plant needle caragana to protect from livestock in the long term. 5. Also, as protecting buffer zone, there would be planted sea-buckthorn forest in 5 hectares of area, to support household’s income. 6. Assumed that it is possible to organize the safari tourism for domestic and international travelers. For the Scenario-2, all protection activities are same with Scenario-2 excluded protection of needle caragana forest. Estimating the cost-benefit analysis for the scenarios the total costs consist of economic cost, environmental cost and total benefits includes economic benefit, social benefit and environmental benefit for the year. As results of the analysis indicate the most economically and environmentally beneficial scenario is Scenario-1. Because three values of the analysis for the scenarios to be compared and it illustrates Scenario-1 has much higher NVP is 6.2 million dollars than Scenario-2 from 2017 to 2027. In other hand, the protection of the area from livestock by planting trees and shrubs that is considered in Scenario -1 has a positive impact on biodiversity and increase ecological benefits. The cost benefit analysis is potential method to evaluate competitive scenarios for implementing activities in the long run. Key Words Buffer zone, cost-benefit analysis, needle caragana forest
In this study we carried out cost-benefit analysis on the most competitive two sectors including animal husbandry and irrigated agriculture in the Shariin gol catchment.
In this study we carried out cost-benefit analysis on the most competitive two sectors including animal husbandry and irrigated agriculture in the Shariin gol catchment.
