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We argue that the extreme dependence on the natural resource sector has affected a part of the Mongolian economy negatively, thus causing the manufacturing sector to decline. The results are supportive of the argument. We found a long-run negative relationship between the growing resource sector and manufacturing: 10% increase in the resource sector brings 1-2% decrease in manufacturing in Mongolia. In addition, there found a structural break indicating a change in the relationship, negative to positive starting in 2010. 本研究は、モンゴル国における天然資源部門への極度の依存が経済に悪影響を及ぼす、つまり製造業の衰退を招いているのではないか、という主張のもと行われた。結果はこの議論を支持するものである。成長する資源部門と製造業の間には長期的に負の関係があり、資源部門の10％増加に対して、製造業は1～2％減少している。さらに、2010年から負の関係が正の関係に変化したことを示す構造変化が観察された。
Abstract Following the gains from variety literature, this paper estimates the welfare impact of growth of the variety of imported goods in 28 countries in East Africa and East Asia and compares the results. While estimating the gains from variety, the elasticities of substitution are estimated for each country at the Harmonized System six-digit level of disaggregation. More than 100,000 elasticities are estimated, and the paper constructs an exact price index to measure the welfare gains from variety growth. The findings show that from 1995 to 2021, African countries gained on average 5.47 percent of their gross domestic product (0.20 percent annually), and Asian countries excluding Bhutan gained 3.46 percent (0.13 percent annually). Bhutan, Mongolia, Rwanda, and Mozambique are among the countries with the highest gains over the sample period. The evidence indicates that the creation and extension of trade linkages can be a source of welfare, particularly for small and transition- ing economies, a point that is occasionally overlooked in discussions about the positive effects of globalization and economic integration. The estimated elasticities may also be useful for other studies.
Abstract We argue that the extreme dependence on the natural resource sector has affected a part of the Mongolian economy negatively, thus causing the manufacturing sector to decline. The results are supportive of the argument. We found a long-run negative relationship between the growing resource sector and manufacturing: 10% increase in the resource sector brings 1-2% decrease in manufacturing in Mongolia. In addition, there found a structural break indicating a change in the relationship, negative to positive starting in 2010. Keywords: Manufacturing, Natural resource abundance, Resource curse, Dutch disease, VECM, ARDL JEL classification: F14, F15, O13, O14, Q33
We argue that the extreme dependence on the natural resource sector has affected a part of the Mongolian economy negatively, thus causing the manufacturing sector to decline. This phenomenon, or the so-called Dutch Disease hypothesis were tested, and the results are supportive of the argument. We found a long-run negative relationship between the growing resource sector and manufacturing: a ten-percent increase in the resource sector brings a two-percent decrease in manufacturing in Mongolia. Keywords: Manufacturing, Natural resource abundance, Resource curse, Dutch disease, VECM JEL Classification: F14 , F15 , O13 , O14 , Q33
Abstract Following the gains from variety literature, we have estimated the welfare impact of imported goods variety growth in 10 countries from East Africa and 13 in East Asia and compared the results. We have adopted the renowned technique by Broda and Weinstein (2006). While estimating these gains from variety, we estimated elasticities of substitution for each country at the HS-6 level of disaggregation - more than hundred thousand in total- and with the elasticities, we constructed an exact price index to measure the welfare gains from variety growth. We find that throughout the sample period, African countries gained on average 5.47 percent of their GDP, however Asian countries excluding Bhutan gained less from import variety with 4.01 percent. Bhutan, Mongolia, Rwanda and Mozambique are the most gaining countries in 27 years of our sample period, from 1995 to 2021. The estimated elasticities may also be useful for other studies. JEL Classification Codes: F14, F15, L13, L16 Keywords: Gains from trade, Gains from variety, Elasticity of substitution, Welfare effect of trade liberalization, Economic integration
Abstract We argue that the extreme dependence on the natural resource sector has affected a part of the Mongolian economy negatively, thus causing the manufacturing sector decline. This phenomenon, or the so-called Dutch Disease hypothesis were tested and the results are supportive of the argument. We found a long-run negative relationship between the growing resource sector and manufacturing: a one-percent increase in the resource sector brings a two-percent decrease in manufacturing in Mongolia. Keywords: Manufacturing; Natural resource abundance; Resource curse; Dutch disease; VECM JEL classification: F14, F15, O13, O14, Q33
Following the gains from variety literature (Broda and Weinstein, 2006), we estimate the welfare impact of the dramatic increase in imported varieties growth in Mongolia and find it to be considerably larger than that found in previous studies of other transitional economies. Our results show that from 1988 to 2015, the gains from variety were equal to 22 percent of Mongolia’s GDP, or 0.8 percent annually. As such, this paper measures the gains of one of the most profound trade liberalizations in modern history. Also, by calculating Novy measures of trade costs, we find that the tariff-equivalent trade costs between any of its trade partners fell dramatically since the dissolution of and Mongolia’s exit from the Soviet-led CMEA (Council of Mutual Economic Association). Our calculations suggest that the costs between Mongolia and China, now its biggest trading partner, fell from 114\% to 63\%. For reference, this is twice the decline of the post-NAFTA US-Mexico trade costs. Other bilateral trade cost declines (e.g. with Germany) were even greater.
