Бидний тухай
Багш ажилтан
We argue that the extreme dependence on the natural resource sector has affected a part of the Mongolian economy negatively, thus causing the manufacturing sector to decline. The results are supportive of the argument. We found a long-run negative relationship between the growing resource sector and manufacturing: 10% increase in the resource sector brings 1-2% decrease in manufacturing in Mongolia. In addition, there found a structural break indicating a change in the relationship, negative to positive starting in 2010. 本研究は、モンゴル国における天然資源部門への極度の依存が経済に悪影響を及ぼす、つまり製造業の衰退を招いているのではないか、という主張のもと行われた。結果はこの議論を支持するものである。成長する資源部門と製造業の間には長期的に負の関係があり、資源部門の10％増加に対して、製造業は1～2％減少している。さらに、2010年から負の関係が正の関係に変化したことを示す構造変化が観察された。
Abstract We argue that the extreme dependence on the natural resource sector has affected a part of the Mongolian economy negatively, thus causing the manufacturing sector to decline. The results are supportive of the argument. We found a long-run negative relationship between the growing resource sector and manufacturing: 10% increase in the resource sector brings 1-2% decrease in manufacturing in Mongolia. In addition, there found a structural break indicating a change in the relationship, negative to positive starting in 2010. Keywords: Manufacturing, Natural resource abundance, Resource curse, Dutch disease, VECM, ARDL JEL classification: F14, F15, O13, O14, Q33
Монголын эдийн засагт макро эдийн засгийн бодлого харьцангуй эерэг нөлөө үзүүлж байгаа хэдий ч улс төр, нийгэм, институц, хүрээлэн буй орчин гээд олон хүчин зүйлийн үзүүлэх нөлөө, цар хүрээ ялгаатай байна.
I revisit the excess volatility of the consumption puzzle, a feature often observed in developing and emerging economies. I assess how the excess volatility of consumption varies across countries by incorporating interrelation between countries’ commodity dependence and income level. This is estimated in the context of the excess sensitivity of the consumption to output using cross-country panel data. I find that the sensitivity of consumption on the income level appears differently by the country’s commodity dependence. The sensitivity is higher in low-income groups for the commodity-dependent countries, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for non-commodity-dependent countries.
I revisit the excess volatility of the consumption puzzle, a feature often observed in developing and emerging economies. I assess how the excess volatility of consumption varies across countries by incorporating interrelation between countries’ commodity dependence and income level. This is estimated in the context of the excess sensitivity of the consumption to output using cross-country panel data. I find that the sensitivity of consumption on the income level appears differently by the country’s commodity dependence. The sensitivity is higher in low-income groups for the commodity-dependent countries, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for non-commodity-dependent countries.
I revisit the excess volatility of the consumption puzzle, a feature often observed in developing and emerging economies. I assess how the excess volatility of consumption varies across countries by incorporating interrelation between countries’ commodity dependence and income level. This is estimated in the context of the excess sensitivity of the consumption to output using cross-country panel data. I find that the sensitivity of consumption on the income level appears differently by the country’s commodity dependence. The sensitivity is higher in low-income groups for the commodity-dependent countries, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for non-commodity-dependent countries.
I study the excess sensitivity of the consumption to income across income groups using Mongolian household survey data. I find heterogeneous excess sensitivity of consumption to income across income groups. Such behavior can be rationalized in the context of the stochastic trend hypothesis, given Mongolia's relatively unstable economic development and policy changes, dependent on the mining sector since the 2000s. Furthermore, contrary to the case where liquidity constraints are considered to be the bottleneck, I find higher sensitivity of the consumption in rather high-income groups than in the low-income groups.
I study the excess sensitivity of the consumption to income across income groups using Mongolian household survey data. I find heterogeneous excess sensitivity of consumption to income across income groups. Such behavior can be rationalized in the context of the stochastic trend hypothesis, given Mongolia’s relatively unstable economic development and policy changes, dependent on the mining sector since the 2000s. Furthermore, contrary to the case where liquidity constraints are considered to be the bottleneck, I find higher sensitivity of the consumption in rather high-income groups than in the low-income groups.
I revisit the excess volatility of the consumption puzzle, a feature often observed in developing and emerging economies. I assess how the excess volatility of consumption varies across countries by incorporating interrelation between countries’ commodity dependence and income level. This is estimated in the context of the excess sensitivity of the consumption to output using cross-country panel data. I find that the sensitivity of consumption on the income level appears differently by the country’s commodity dependence. The sensitivity is higher in low-income groups for the commodity-dependent countries, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for non-commodity-dependent countries.
