Бидний тухай
Багш ажилтан
This paper investigates whether the pension reform—specifically, the shift from a Defined Benefit (DB) scheme to a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) scheme—affected labor supply decisions in Mongolia, particularly among women far from retirement-claiming age. The Law on Individual Pension Insurance Contribution Accounts, introduced in 1999, mandated that all individuals born after December 31, 1959, be covered by the NDC scheme. To examine the reform’s effect, we employ a sharp regression discontinuity design (RDD) using data from the Labor Force Survey (LFS) conducted in 2002 and 2003. The results show that the transition from the DB to the NDC system led to a significant decline in women’s labor supply: the probability of being employed decreased by 13.6 percentage points, while labor force participation fell by 13.1 percentage points. The effects are heterogeneous across individual characteristics, suggesting that the reform’s impact on labor market behavior varies among subgroups.
Хоорондоо холбоотой салбаруудын үйл ажиллагаа бол бодлогын шинжилгээнд чухал ач холбогдолтой. Сүүлийн 20 гаруй жилийн хугацаанд Монгол улсад хуулийн этгээдийн тоо нэмэгдсэн төдийгүй идэвхгүй ААНБ-ын эзлэх хувь ч мөн мэдэгдэхүйц өссөн. Энэ хандлага нь КОВИД-19 цар тахлын үед улам бүр нэмэгдсэн. Монгол улсын хувьд харьцангуй жижиг, цөөн жил ажиллаж буй ААН-үүд зах зээлд дийлэнх хувийг эзэлдэг. Зарим салбарын ААН-үүд зах зээлд илт давамгайлан ялгарах болсон. Зардлын бүтэц салбар бүрт эрс ялгаатай байгаа ч түүхий эд орц, үйлчилгээ, цалин хөлс тус бүр нийт зардалд 30 хувийг эзэлж байна. Энэхүү судалгаа нь цаашид Монголын эдийн засагт ААН-ийн хэмжээ үнэхээр нөлөөтэй байна уу? Илүү бүтээмжтэй ААН-үүд илүү жижиг байх хандлагатай юу? гэдгийг гүнзгийрүүлэн шинжлэхэд тустай. Уул уурхай болон уул уурхайн бус салбарт хөгжлийн хөдөлгөгч хүч ялгаатай байж болно.
This paper investigates whether the pension reform—specifically, the shift from a Defined Benefit (DB) scheme to a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) scheme—affected labor supply decisions in Mongolia, particularly among women far from retirement-claiming age. The Law on Individual Pension Insurance Contribution Accounts, introduced in 1999, mandated that all individuals born after December 31, 1959, be covered by the NDC scheme. To examine the reform’s effect, we employ a sharp regression discontinuity design (RDD) using data from the Labor Force Survey (LFS) conducted in 2002 and 2003. The results show that the transition from the DB to the NDC system led to a significant decline in women’s labor supply: the probability of being employed decreased by 13.6 percentage points, while labor force participation fell by 13.1 percentage points. The effects are heterogeneous across individual characteristics, suggesting that the reform’s impact on labor market behavior varies among subgroups.
We study possible constraints to pension participation using a randomized control trial and administrative records covering approximately 40 percent of Mongolian subdistricts. Our analysis shows that contribution rate increases by providing information about the mobile phone payment option to pay pension contributions. We also find the information of the presence of experts dispatched from a foreign aid agency to the pension administration increases contribution rate. These results imply that perceived transaction costs and trust in the program influence the demand for pension services. Foreign aid seems to facilitate citizens’ participation in government programs by changing their perceptions of these services.
We estimate the efficiency of resources invested in the education sector using Data Envelopment Analysis at both the international and domestic levels in Mongolia. Current resource levels enable improvements in the quality of education (i.e., student outcomes and graduation rates) in most countries, suggesting that the efficiency of the education sector can be increased or that resources can be better utilized. For preschools in Mongolia, the efficiency of resource utilization was relatively high across the provinces. For general education, the efficiency of resource utilization was relatively poor in 2019 but improved by 2024.
We study possible constraints to pension participation using a randomized control trial and administrative records covering approximately 40 percent of Mongolian subdistricts. Our analysis shows that contribution rate increases by providing information about the mobile phone payment option to pay pension contributions. We also find the information of the presence of experts dispatched from a foreign aid agency to the pension administration increases contribution rate. These results imply that perceived transaction costs and trust in the program influence the demand for pension services. Foreign aid seems to facilitate citizens’ participation in government programs by changing their perceptions of these services.
We argue that the extreme dependence on the natural resource sector has affected a part of the Mongolian economy negatively, thus causing the manufacturing sector to decline. The results are supportive of the argument. We found a long-run negative relationship between the growing resource sector and manufacturing: 10% increase in the resource sector brings 1-2% decrease in manufacturing in Mongolia. In addition, there found a structural break indicating a change in the relationship, negative to positive starting in 2010. 本研究は、モンゴル国における天然資源部門への極度の依存が経済に悪影響を及ぼす、つまり製造業の衰退を招いているのではないか、という主張のもと行われた。結果はこの議論を支持するものである。成長する資源部門と製造業の間には長期的に負の関係があり、資源部門の10％増加に対して、製造業は1～2％減少している。さらに、2010年から負の関係が正の関係に変化したことを示す構造変化が観察された。
Abstract We argue that the extreme dependence on the natural resource sector has affected a part of the Mongolian economy negatively, thus causing the manufacturing sector to decline. The results are supportive of the argument. We found a long-run negative relationship between the growing resource sector and manufacturing: 10% increase in the resource sector brings 1-2% decrease in manufacturing in Mongolia. In addition, there found a structural break indicating a change in the relationship, negative to positive starting in 2010. Keywords: Manufacturing, Natural resource abundance, Resource curse, Dutch disease, VECM, ARDL JEL classification: F14, F15, O13, O14, Q33
Монголын эдийн засагт макро эдийн засгийн бодлого харьцангуй эерэг нөлөө үзүүлж байгаа хэдий ч улс төр, нийгэм, институц, хүрээлэн буй орчин гээд олон хүчин зүйлийн үзүүлэх нөлөө, цар хүрээ ялгаатай байна.
I revisit the excess volatility of the consumption puzzle, a feature often observed in developing and emerging economies. I assess how the excess volatility of consumption varies across countries by incorporating interrelation between countries’ commodity dependence and income level. This is estimated in the context of the excess sensitivity of the consumption to output using cross-country panel data. I find that the sensitivity of consumption on the income level appears differently by the country’s commodity dependence. The sensitivity is higher in low-income groups for the commodity-dependent countries, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for non-commodity-dependent countries.
I revisit the excess volatility of the consumption puzzle, a feature often observed in developing and emerging economies. I assess how the excess volatility of consumption varies across countries by incorporating interrelation between countries’ commodity dependence and income level. This is estimated in the context of the excess sensitivity of the consumption to output using cross-country panel data. I find that the sensitivity of consumption on the income level appears differently by the country’s commodity dependence. The sensitivity is higher in low-income groups for the commodity-dependent countries, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for non-commodity-dependent countries.
I revisit the excess volatility of the consumption puzzle, a feature often observed in developing and emerging economies. I assess how the excess volatility of consumption varies across countries by incorporating interrelation between countries’ commodity dependence and income level. This is estimated in the context of the excess sensitivity of the consumption to output using cross-country panel data. I find that the sensitivity of consumption on the income level appears differently by the country’s commodity dependence. The sensitivity is higher in low-income groups for the commodity-dependent countries, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for non-commodity-dependent countries.
I study the excess sensitivity of the consumption to income across income groups using Mongolian household survey data. I find heterogeneous excess sensitivity of consumption to income across income groups. Such behavior can be rationalized in the context of the stochastic trend hypothesis, given Mongolia's relatively unstable economic development and policy changes, dependent on the mining sector since the 2000s. Furthermore, contrary to the case where liquidity constraints are considered to be the bottleneck, I find higher sensitivity of the consumption in rather high-income groups than in the low-income groups.
I study the excess sensitivity of the consumption to income across income groups using Mongolian household survey data. I find heterogeneous excess sensitivity of consumption to income across income groups. Such behavior can be rationalized in the context of the stochastic trend hypothesis, given Mongolia’s relatively unstable economic development and policy changes, dependent on the mining sector since the 2000s. Furthermore, contrary to the case where liquidity constraints are considered to be the bottleneck, I find higher sensitivity of the consumption in rather high-income groups than in the low-income groups.
I revisit the excess volatility of the consumption puzzle, a feature often observed in developing and emerging economies. I assess how the excess volatility of consumption varies across countries by incorporating interrelation between countries’ commodity dependence and income level. This is estimated in the context of the excess sensitivity of the consumption to output using cross-country panel data. I find that the sensitivity of consumption on the income level appears differently by the country’s commodity dependence. The sensitivity is higher in low-income groups for the commodity-dependent countries, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for non-commodity-dependent countries.
